How Big Could Minor League Baseball Realignment Get?

As the MLB and MLBPA are at a standstill and following the most important week for the league in a quarter century, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, led to nothing but a whimper, it’s time to start penciling some things in.

The 2020 MiLB season is dead in the water with there being an ever-increasing likelihood that the 2020 MLB season could be lost due to a labor impasse. The MiLB has all but accepted the vast majority of MLB’s requests. MiLB has been mum publicly ever since their latest meeting regarding the PBA in late April.

A growing list of MiLB sides are working under the assumption that 2020 has been scraped and the upcoming PBA agreement will be a very one-sided affair. President and CEO Pat O’Connor has had to even send out a private memo recently to all 160 MiLB teams regarding teams engaging in new affiliation contracts outside of the legal window at the conclusion of the season. Teams like the Pensacola Blue Wahoos have converted their ballpark into an AirBnB and other teams are giving away dates to local organizations and event planners that they’d otherwise be holding onto in case a relaunched 2020 season was on the horizon.

Behind the backdrop of the much-reported contraction of 42 MiLB teams, it seems that realignment has been overlooked by some. Given how leagues and classifications will need to be reshaped as it is, not a lot of discussion has been put into how much realignment could transpire.

Any indication from insiders suggest that while MiLB haven’t given into every single one of MLB’s requests, they are not working with a lot of bargaining power. If it has been privately discussed that 42 teams will be eliminated from MiLB, following additions and subtractions from the initial list leaked last fall, then one could argue the MiLB have given up other key concessions.

MLB’s most substantial request, outside of contraction, was complete control over its affiliates and MiLB. This means that rather than coming to a mutual agreement, MLB will have full say in who their affiliates are, what league/classification they play in, and even where they’re located. MLB also wants to assume outright control of MiLB; relocating their front office to MLB’s New York City offices and consolidating, if not eliminating, the various league offices.

If MLB ultimately get their way on these points, we could very well be looking at realignment through a lens that no longer exists.

The most substantial and in-depth research into how realignment might take shape in MiLB has been by a group of researchers from John Hopkins University. Led by Anton Dahbura, a minority owner of the Hagerstown Suns, his group presented to MiLB leagues possible realignment scenarios at the latest Baseball Winter Meetings in San Diego. The team has since revised their research, taking into account the current negotiating climate, and released their findings shortly after MLB and MiLB seasons were put on hiatus.

The 11-page document goes into full detail on how realignment might transpire, limiting their research based on key factors such as sticking to the initial list of 42 contracted teams among other logical assumptions such as MLB maintaining affiliation with MiLB teams they have an ownership stake in.

Based on my preliminary research, here is a list of MLB-controlled MiLB affiliates. These teams either have a majority ownership stake, if not outright, or at least one individual has a sizable ownership in both the corresponding MLB and MiLB affiliate in question. Given how some teams prefer to splinter off their various business interests instead of keeping it under one umbrella, this isn’t a definitive list of MLB-controlled MiLB teams.

• Atlanta Braves: Gwinnett Stripers (AAA), Mississippi Braves (AA), Rome Braves (Low A)
• Boston Red Sox: Salem Red Sox (High A)
• Chicago White Sox: Winston-Salem Dash (High A)
• Detroit Tigers: Lakeland Flying Tigers (High A)
• Houston Astros: Corpus Christi Hooks (AA), Fayetteville Woodpeckers (High A)
• Los Angeles Dodgers: Oklahoma City Dodgers (AAA)
• Miami Marlins: Jupiter Hammerheads (High A)
• Milwaukee Brewers: Carolina Mudcats (High A)
• New York Mets: Syracuse Mets (AAA), St Lucie Mets (High A), Brooklyn Cyclones (Low A)
• New York Yankees: SWB Railriders (AAA), Tampa Tarpons (High A), Staten Island Yankees (SS A)
• Philadelphia Phillies: Reading Fightin Phils (AA), Clearwater Threshers (High A)
• Pittsburgh Pirates: Bradenton Marauders (High A)
• San Francisco Giants: San Jose Giants (High A)
• Seattle Mariners: Tacoma Rainiers (AAA), Modesto Nuts (High A)
• St Louis Cardinals: Springfield Cardinals (AA), Palm Beach Cardinals (High A)
• Texas Rangers: Down East Wood Ducks (High A), Hickory Crawdads (Low A)
• Toronto Blue Jays: Dunedin Blue Jays (High A)

While I do think a lot of the research team’s reasoning and conclusions are sound, such as not shying away from reclassifying existing teams outside of the short-season teams, I don’t think they properly factor in how MLB’s newly-found autonomy over their affiliates will effect realignment. Of course, we’re in a different negotiating climate than we were two months ago after being in a different negotiating climate, once again, three months prior. As an attendee of the Baseball Winter Meetings, I can attest to that.

For starters, one of the main takeaways from the initial leaks was MLB’s desire to have their AAA affiliates as close as possible with the exception of a few existing relationships such as the Dodgers and Oklahoma City. That’s why the St Paul Saints and Sugar Land Skeeters are allegedly being brought into MiLB in order for the Twins and Astros to achieve that. While Minnesota currently has Rochester as their AAA affiliate, Houston already has a close proximity AAA affiliate in Round Rock. While Sugar Land, a suburb of Houston, is closer than Round Rock, a suburb of Austin, it goes to show the desire some clubs might have in that proximity.

There’s also the possibility of MiLB teams, given the current economic situation, are available for purchase. MLB teams already have direct financial ties with at least 28 MiLB teams so what’s to say that number doesn’t increase in the coming months as the economic impact of a lost season becomes more dire. If this is the case then MiLB sides have even more flexibility to change leagues and classifications.

In 2016, Forbes put out an article which detailed the 30 most valuable MiLB franchises at the time. While things have likely shifted since then, it does make one of the contentions behind why certain teams won’t reclassify null and void. Franchise value are no longer tied to affiliation level. The Dayton Dragons, in Low-A, were the 3rd most valuable MiLB franchise. The Fort Wayne Tincaps, also in Low-A, were the 17th most valuable franchise. Frisco, Birmingham, Reading, Richmond, Tulsa, Corpus Christi, Jacksonville, and Trenton, all of which are in AA, were in the Top 30. It’s very likely teams like Hartford, Brooklyn, Amarillo and others outside AAA have made their way into the Top 30.

By and large, the reason why AAA sides tend to be the most valuable is due to them having the pick of the litter in terms of markets. A noticeable chunk of AAA teams, such as Indianapolis, Charlotte, Buffalo and Nashville all share markets with multiple pro sports teams. These teams have a much-larger fanbase that’s engaged with sports to draw from. All of this lends itself to why they are, in part, so valuable to begin with and stay that way.

Taking all of this into account, as well as issues laid out by Dahbura’s research team, we can’t be definitively certain as to what the prospect of realignment has in store for MiLB. A key factor I didn’t touch on is the possibility of an otherwise safe MiLB franchise going into bankruptcy due to this pandemic and how that might alter things. This shared concern led to MiLB making the front cover of Sports Illustrated. We, the public, don’t know everything behind-the-scenes until the MLB-MLBPA dominos start to fall as MiLB has been effectively put in limbo until then.

Nonetheless, look back here as I go in-depth with how I think the MiLB could be drastically reshaped in my next piece.